Here it is – proof Googles post Panda over optimisation penalty is almost here http://googlewebmastercentral.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/another-step-to-reward-high-quality.html
I find it very interesting that Matt Cutts (if you dont know who he is, you’re at the wrong page) makes distinctions between black hat and white hat SEO and that “For context, the initial Panda change affected about 12% of queries to a significant degree; this algorithm affects about 3.1% of queries in English to a degree that a regular user might notice.” I had a feeling this could have a bigger impact than Panda, but seemingly that wont be the case.
Based on the fuller explanation from Matt Cutts im a little surprised that the potential penalty seems to focus on the overtly spammy and also that Google “want the ‘good guys’ making great sites for users, not just algorithms, to see their effort rewarded.” A very odd and not a little contentious statement indeed and perhaps rather worrying terminology from Googles head of spam who seemingly has the ability to determine who the ‘good guys’ are – a rather ambiguos and flippant determination given that Panda and other, albeit wise algorithm changes, has no doubt adversely altered the livelihoods of many ‘good guys’.
Still im pretty sure Matt is a top bloke, by all accounts and on my reading he really is, and enthusiasm has maybe got the better of him. Please Matt dont assume all over optimisation is done by ‘bad guys’ who want to cheat the system.